Tonight’s crunch vote on the Lisbon Treaty referendum

All the interminable committee debates on the EU (Amendment) Bill come to a head tonight, with a debate and vote on the Tories’ amendment, which would require a referendum – though they may withdraw this and back Labour backbencher Ian Davidson’s compromise offering both a Lisbon and an “in-or-out of the EU” referendum.

It’s this last scenario that’s most dangerous for the government, I’d say: they should be safe on the Tory amendment, even with some Labour backbenchers rebelling, because the LibDems are being three-line-whipped to abstain on it, extraordinarily. But if the LibDems and Tories could agree to support Davidson – who knows? If that came about, it’s just possible this could be an important night in politics, and the commitment of those Labour rebels might be severely tested.

If it doesn’t happen, the LibDems are likely to be the big losers – some of them are determined to stick to their old commitment to a referendum, and may have to resign tonight. Let’s see. I must get home to watch the fun on BBC Parliament. I really hope Bill Cash doesn’t go on and on about Lord Denning and the McCarthays v Smith case again as he seems to have done for two evenings running.