As I said to Charon in his weekly review yesterday, it’s time I blogged again about Pakistan. The outcome of the elections means the next government is almost certain to be a coalition between the Pakistan People’s Party, formerly led by Benazir Bhutto, and Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N), together with one of more smaller parties. It’s unlikely they’ll have the two thirds majority they’d need to impeach President Musharraf, but the political tide has clearly turned decisively against him; so much so that the Sunday Telegraph reported yesterday that Musharraf’s thinking of stepping down.
What I’m a bit confused about is where discussions between the PPP and the PML-N have got to over restoration of the judiciary and the constitution: that Sunday Telegraph article suggests the parties and a smaller ally have pledged to restore the status quo ante November 3rd; but this BBC story about the sacked Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry suggests there remains disagreement. Chaudhry’s view, though, is that victory is in sight for the lawyers’ protests. I think he must be right. It looks as though Pakistan is throwing off the military and returning to the rule of law. All those Pakistani lawyers who helped lead the protest movement can be proud of what they’ve now very nearly achieved.
My own view is that the parties should immediately form a transitional coalition for limited purposes: to replace the incumbent government immediately so that it no longer has any levers of power; to release remaining political prisoners without further delay; and to restore the judiciary and lift any remaining unconstitutional measures. Once those things are achieved, new negotiations can start about the coalition’s other home and foreign policies. To be honest I think arguing about impeachment would be a waste of time: if Musharraf steps down, that is the important thing, and if I were involved in these discussions I’d be tempted to offer him a deal – immunity, say – if he did just that and spoke publicly backing the new dispensation and arguing for the army to stay out of politics.
Pakistaniat.com is already speculating on who Musharraf’s replacement could be: it’s interesting that Iftikhar Chaudry and the other leader of the lawyers’ protest movement, Aitzaz Ahsan, are both mentioned. I don’t know enough about either of them to comment really, but Chaudhry in particular is now so widely admired for his stand as Chief Justice that I think his appointment would symbolise commitment to a new path for Pakistan.
Qaisar Rashid’s Pakistan Politics article comparing the election result to a Pakistani “orange revolution” is also worth a read.
Leave a comment